The Road From Here

Cornell finishes second in the ECAC Hockey standings and falls to 11th in Pairwise after the tie to RPI on Saturday.

Cornell has next weekend off, and then hosts a quarterfinal series at Lynah the following weekend. Cornell will play the second-lowest remaining seed in the ECAC tournament.

If the favorites win in the first round, Cornell plays Quinnipiac. With any number of upsets, Cornell could also potentially play Brown, Dartmouth, Princeton, or Harvard.

In my personal view, Quinnipiac is not an ideal team to play. As we saw earlier in the season, they have the potential to play ridiculously, ridiculously well. The playoffs are known as the "second season," and this is a big opportunity for Q to turn things around.

Among the other possibilities, Brown and Harvard would probably be the easiest teams. Cornell is 1-1-0 against Dartmouth and 1-2-0 against Princeton this season, although I'm confident that Cornell could beat either team in a best-of-three series at Lynah.

If Cornell loses the quarterfinal round series, our season is over.

If Cornell loses one game in the quarterfinal round series, we will probably need to win the ECAC championship to secure an NCAA bid. Potentially, we could still earn an at-large bid by making the championship game and getting some help from some other conference tournament results.

If Cornell sweeps the quarterfinal series, they might have enough Pairwise breathing room to drop the first game in Albany (presumably to Union) and still make the NCAA tournament.

From looking at the numbers, I'm confident that if Cornell wins its next three games (sweeping the quarterfinal series and then winning the ECAC semifinal) before losing in the final (especially to Yale), they'll grab an at-large NCAA bid. To me, this seems like the most likely scenario.

The problem with Cornell's position in the Pairwise is two-fold.

First, Cornell has played only nine games against other Teams Under Consideration (TUCs). This part of the Pairwise comparison does not kick in until both teams have played ten games against TUCs. Cornell will probably pick up a tenth TUC game if they make it to Albany, since both Union and Yale are currently TUCs. Cornell is currently 3-4-2 (.444) against TUCs; some of the other teams near Cornell in the Pairwise have better records against TUCs. Therefore, if Cornell were to lose to Union or Yale in Albany, Cornell's 3-5-2 (.400) record against TUCs would hurt us in a lot of comparisons.

Second, Cornell's RPI (ratings percentage index) is narrowly ahead of several other teams'. When Cornell loses another game, particularly if it comes in the quarterfinal series, the Big Red's RPI will take a substantial hit. This might be enough to flip a few comparisons and dump Cornell out of the NCAA tournament field.

RPI is especially important right now, since Cornell's lack of TUC games means that RPI is the sole point of comparison in some Pairwise matchups. For example, Cornell vs. Ferris State. The teams haven't played each other, and Cornell doesn't have enough games against TUCs. The only common opponent is Yale; thankfully, Ferris State also lost to Yale. So no points there. That leaves RPI as the only point of comparison. Cornell's RPI of .5356 is just ahead of Ferris State's .5353. Any slip up by Cornell and this comparison flips.

As always, the easiest thing for Cornell is just to win, win, and win some more. But given the team's troubles on Saturday nights, it's hard to imagine Cornell sweeping the quarterfinal round series. In Albany, Yale will be waiting to dismantle the Big Red once again. Although Cornell is currently "in" the NCAA tournament, it's certainly not an easy road from here.