Will History Judge Bush More Favorably?

During the last part of his second term, when the media began to focus on Bush's legacy, the former president appeared convinced that he would be judged more favorably from an historical perspective. His approval numbers were low, but his advisers insisted that the country would appreciate what Bush had done once a few years had passed.

A new survey by C-SPAN might give the Bush-backers some hope.

Timed for Presidents Day 2009, C-SPAN today releases the results of its second Historians Survey of Presidential Leadership, in which a cross-section of 65 presidential historians ranked the 42 former occupants of the White House on ten attributes of leadership.

There aren't too many surprises on the list.

The top 5:
1. Lincoln
2. Washington
3. F. Roosevelt
4. T. Roosevelt
5. Truman

The bottom 5:
38. Harding
39. Harrison
40. Pierce
41. Johnson
42. Buchanan

C-SPAN last conducted this survey in 2000, and none of the presidents moved more than a couple spots -- with one exception.

Clinton came in at #21 in 2000, but moves up 6 spots to #15 this year.

Similarly, GHW Bush moved up 2 spots to #18, leapfrogging John Quincy Adams.

The point is that recent presidents seem to experience a sizable jump in reputation once they've been out of office for a few years. Of course, this might be due to the latest President Bush's incompetence: Clinton's problems seem trivial when compared with the messes we've gotten into recently, while his father's presidency reminds us of what an effective Republican president looks like.

Still, a jump of 6 spots in 9 years is impressive. Clinton now ranks 3rd among all presidents in economic management, and jumped from #36 to #19 in relations with Congress.

Might Dubya also benefit from a post-presidency bump? He currently sits at #36, good for the 7th worst presidency of all time. This low ranking means he has plenty of room to improve. If Obama, too, has problems managing the economy, or the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, then it is possible that the Bush presidency will receive more respect. Until the next survey, it's safe to say that historians haven't quite come around to giving Bush the respect he predicted.