Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Riley Nash, Continued

The Oilers fan blog Lowetide is still quite bullish on their prospect Riley Nash.

In this lengthy post (with 79 comments), they finally seem to recognize that Nash's production is down this year, but they note that he is skilled as both an offensive and defensive player, so he should not be judged solely by his offensive numbers.

Their conclusion:

I'd say the worry here is the EV number, which is going to be where Nash scores most of his points when turning pro. Cornell scored (by year) 63, 59 and (so far) 36 goals at even-strength during Nash's Cornell career. That current number projects to 76EV goals and would represent a team high for the Redmen. Nash's 6 points in 17 games is off the pace. There's still half a season to go and we can probably assume that senior center Blake Gallagher is eating his lunch a little at even-strength and PP; the fact that it is happening in Nash's junior season suggests he has either played less than in previous seasons, has played in bad luck, or is underperforming.

We need to acknowledge also that the Kevin Prendergast may (strictly in hockey development terms and depending on how this season rolls out) be correct: perhaps Riley Nash stayed to long at the fair.

I think it's become clear to Cornell hockey fans that Colin Greening is a significantly better NHL prospect than Riley Nash. Nash is a good penalty killer, and that's probably something he learned at Cornell, but he hasn't become the dominant offensive player that Greening has managed to become. Nash hasn't had a bad season, but his production has gone down. This isn't what you like to see with an NHL prospect.

I know the Oilers will be anxious to have Nash leave Cornell after this season, and I expect he will go. Staying at Cornell for four years worked for guys like Matt Moulson and Douglas Murray, but it might not benefit Riley Nash if he's not improving year to year. With Brendon gone, expect Riley to leave as well.

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