Cornell's performance in the Florida tournament is generally not a good indicator of how the season will turn out. For example, Cornell finished in last place in 2002 (albeit without Leneveu) and went on to make the Frozen Four that season. In 2006, Cornell won a big game against then-No. 2 New Hampshire, but lost in the ECAC Quarterfinal round in the spring.
Plus, the tournament's atmosphere is a little quirky. Teams usually show signs of rust after not playing for a few weeks. The Florida referees (usually from the ECHL) are not the best; I can remember one time they called icing on a team trying to kill off a powerplay. The crowd is quiet and you can hear the players and coaches yelling at each other on the ice. Plus, other weird stuff happens. Cornell scored a goal when Maine's Ben Bishop went towards the corner to play a cleared puck. The crappy Florida boards inexplicably diverted the puck into the open net as Bishop watched in horror. There was also that time the entire UMass-Lowell team got seasick when they went fishing the day before the tournament. Lastly, it's just unnatural to walk into a hockey game wearing shorts and a t-shirt.
Cornell has a great opportunity to make their first statement of the season. They failed against Yale, they failed against Quinnipiac, and they failed against Boston University. Based on the program's reputation, and a generous slate of terrible teams on the schedule, Cornell finds itself with a No. 4 ranking in the polls without having won any games of consequence.
Colorado College would be one of the big stories of the season if not for Quinnipiac's even more remarkable achievements. No one expected them to be anywhere close to their current No. 3 ranking in the polls. They're anchored by a freshman goalie with a .926 save percentage, and, like a typical WCHA team, they have plenty of offense. Still, they've struggled a bit recently. At 1-2-2 in their last five games, they're looking to get their season back on track.
In the other semifinal, a hot Maine team (unbeaten in their last six games) will take on a Princeton team which is coming off a big win against then-No. 9 UMass-Lowell. Princeton is the only team in the field with a losing record, and they looked pretty ordinary against Cornell, but if Kalemba and some other players come alive, they have a shot to win the tournament.
Cornell's worst case scenario would be to lose to CC and Princeton this week. The game against Princeton is essentially meaningless, since it doesn't count towards ECAC standings and it doesn't look like Princeton will be making the NCAA Tournament.
The goal has to be to beat Colorado College. This would be a major "statement" win against a very good western team, and it'll certainly play dividends with RPI, Pairwise, and all those important things. A win against Maine would also be nice, since that'll help our comparisons with Hockey East teams. But at 9-7-1, Maine isn't a blockbuster team this season.
It'll be interesting to see if Cornell can get any offense this week from players not on the top line. Riley Nash had a big goal against Union; let's see if he can follow that up. Schafer has shown some signs of frustration with the third and fourth lines; will he give someone like Chris Moulson a chance to play to mix things up? Ben Scrivens has been solid recently and I would expect that to continue in Florida. He was the tournament MVP last year.
The games aren't televised, but can be streamed online for a few dollars here.
Go red.
Update: Here is the Colorado Springs Gazette's scouting report on Cornell. And here is some insight from the College Hockey Blog:
Colorado College is the favorite to win the tournament methinks, and they have the goalie who should be on the World Junior team. The Tigers are pretty consistent, ranked 9th in both offense and defense. They are pretty balanced on offense, and feature perhaps the most “selfish” player in America in Mike Testuwide, who has 12 goals and just 2 assists.
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