Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Playoff Predictions, Week 3

I'll be traveling the next couple of days, so let me get these out of the way.

Semifinal: #4 St. Lawrence vs. #1 Yale

SLU(t) is playing much better now than they were when Cornell shut them out at Lynah in December. They found the net 8 times against us in a terrible, unforgettable game up in Canton. They swept a pesky Quinnipiac team this past weekend and, as I pointed out last week, they have a chance to play themselves into the NCAA tournament with a semifinal win this weekend. They even had success against Yale this season, winning 3-2 in Canton and tying 2-2 in New Haven.

As I've said before, Yale is clearly the best team in the ECAC this season. SLU(t) scored 10 goals in 2 games against Quinnipiac, but they'll be lucky to score 3 goals on Friday. Yale swept Brown this past weekend, a convincing result considering how well Brown was playing at the end of the season.

Yale is the better hockey team, but SLU(t) wins on Friday. It's a close one, maybe another 3-2 game. St. Lawrence wins.

Semifinal: #3 Princeton vs. #2 Cornell

This is why you try to finish first in the conference. I know I just picked SLU(t) to win, but I'd rather face them than Princeton. Princeton was a great team earlier in the season, but they haven't shown too much down the stretch. They stole a 2-1 victory against us in the final minute at Lynah in February, but lost at Dartmouth and Harvard to end the season. They, like Cornell, needed 3 games to get past the lower seed this past weekend. However, while Cornell thoroughly outplayed RPI during Friday's loss, Princeton lost to Union, 5-2, on Saturday.

To win, Cornell needs offense. RPI's defense was terrible. Regardless of how many penalties there were, any team which gives up 56 shots to clutch-and-grab, grind-it-out, defense-first, slow-skating Cornell is pretty awful on the defensive side. Against Princeton this season, Cornell scored a grand total of 2 goals in 2 games. Tyler Mugford scored in Princeton, while Blake Gallagher scored in Ithaca. Cornell can't count on either player for goals this weekend, since Mugford isn't an offensive forward and Gallagher is injured.

Cornell will also need another great performance from Scrivens. Without offense or strong defense, Cornell loses. Simply put, we did not play well enough this past weekend to beat Princeton. And I'm not confident we can put everything together on Friday night. This hurts to do, but Princeton wins.

Championship game: Princeton repeats as ECAC Hockey champions. St. Lawrence is happy because they make the NCAA tournament.

Consolation game: Cornell, season on the line, takes down Yale. All four ECAC teams make the NCAA tournament.

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